Up to 70,000 net jobs in manufacturing are projected to be lost due to steel and aluminum tariffs. And by jeopardizing access to global markets, the ongoing brinksmanship will directly undercut American manufacturing by increasing the price of the foreign inputs, including steel inputs, that our factories rely on to create internationally competitive finished goods, while threatening our status as the world's leading exporter of services and capital goods.

據(jù)預(yù)計(jì),，針對(duì)鋼鐵和鋁的關(guān)稅政策,，將使美國(guó)失去多達(dá)7萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)凈工作,。此外,，目前施行中的邊緣政策讓美國(guó)進(jìn)入國(guó)際市場(chǎng)越來(lái)越難,，這直接削弱了美國(guó)的制造業(yè),，因?yàn)槲覀円恢币蕾?lài)鋼鐵來(lái)生產(chǎn)具有國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的成品，而外國(guó)輸入的產(chǎn)品,，包括鋼鐵的價(jià)格又上漲了,。這樣一來(lái)，美國(guó)作為世界領(lǐng)先的服務(wù)與資本貨物出口大國(guó)的地位也岌岌可危,。

The forgotten Americans President Trump pledged to pay attention to—notably farmers and manufacturing workers—are precisely the people who will be hurt the most.

特朗普總統(tǒng)曾經(jīng)承諾會(huì)關(guān)注那些被遺忘美國(guó)人,，尤其是農(nóng)民和制造業(yè)工人,，如今,，這些人恰恰成為了損失最為慘重的一群人。

文章稱(chēng),，這些都反應(yīng)了美國(guó)貿(mào)易政策的根本性錯(cuò)誤：他只著眼關(guān)稅卻忽視全球貿(mào)易規(guī)則,。

This ignores the fact that these trade deficits are not the direct result of trade policy, but of the dollar serving as the global currency of choice, the impact of countries' savings and investment rates, and our reliance on foreign capital to make up the difference between what we save and what we spend.

他忽視了貿(mào)易逆差不是貿(mào)易政策的直接原因，而是美元作為全球貨幣選擇,，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)存款和投資率的影響,，以及美國(guó)用外部投資來(lái)平衡支出和存款所產(chǎn)生的依賴(lài)。

最后,，賽利格表示,，特朗普的貿(mào)易政策真是應(yīng)了句老話(huà)：

If the disease doesn't kill you, the cure surely will.

如果疾病沒(méi)能要了你的命，那你吃的藥鐵定會(huì),。

02

自由貿(mào)易才是最優(yōu)解

美國(guó)喬治梅森大學(xué)莫卡特斯中心高級(jí)研究員維羅妮卡·德·魯吉（Veronique de Rugy）在《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》發(fā)表的文章更是直接指出,，降關(guān)稅才是明智之舉：

　　為什么美國(guó)應(yīng)該降下所有關(guān)稅

特朗普的“關(guān)稅猛藥”不止針對(duì)中國(guó),，也針對(duì)了不少其他國(guó)家,，其中就包括美國(guó)親密鄰居兼好友加拿大。

　　文章表示，美國(guó)在關(guān)稅上的“漫無(wú)目的”和“毫無(wú)意義”的無(wú)理取鬧應(yīng)該停止：

The United States should stop the scattershot, pointless nonsense on tariffs and go the other way, and hard: It should drop all tariffs, even if the rest of the world doesn’t follow.

美國(guó)在關(guān)稅問(wèn)題上漫無(wú)目的,、毫無(wú)意義的無(wú)理取鬧該停止了,，它應(yīng)該堅(jiān)決地走另一條路：降低所有的關(guān)稅，即便其他國(guó)家沒(méi)有采取相同措施,，也應(yīng)如此,。

為了講明白自由貿(mào)易的重要性，這位高級(jí)研究員搬出了亞當(dāng)·斯密等經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的理論……

Economists since Adam Smith have understood that free trade is the best policy. Studies show that countries with freer trade have both higher per-capita incomes and faster rates of productivity growth.

亞當(dāng)·斯密以來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都認(rèn)為自由貿(mào)易是最好的政策,。有研究表明,，貿(mào)易更自由的國(guó)家，人均收入更高,，勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)更快,。

Economists have also long understood that barriers to trade, while pitched as a way to help domestic workers, always heavily penalize domestic consumers.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們也早就知道，貿(mào)易發(fā)展的障礙,，即關(guān)稅,，其初衷是幫助國(guó)內(nèi)工人，卻總會(huì)嚴(yán)重?fù)p害國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)者的利益,。

這對(duì)特朗普政府來(lái)說(shuō)也是一樣的道理：

The same is true of Mr. Trump’s steel tariffs. Claiming that they protect a vital industry and its 140,000 workers, tariff supporters never mention how much harder they make things for the 6.5 million manufacturing workers in steel-consuming industries. Add to that number all of us who consume goods made of steel, and you get an even larger figure.

所以,，特朗普對(duì)鋼征稅也是同樣的道理。關(guān)稅支持者們聲稱(chēng)政府保護(hù)了一個(gè)重要產(chǎn)業(yè)及其14萬(wàn)工人,，卻從不告訴你,，那些以鋼鐵為生的產(chǎn)業(yè)的650萬(wàn)制造工人日子有多難過(guò)。對(duì)了,，還要加上我們所有購(gòu)買(mǎi)鋼鐵消費(fèi)品的消費(fèi)者,，這個(gè)數(shù)值只會(huì)越來(lái)越大。

如果反其道而行之,，關(guān)稅將會(huì)抬高成品價(jià)格,，對(duì)美國(guó)企業(yè)，以及相關(guān)行業(yè)的就業(yè)帶來(lái)沉重打擊,。

　　舉個(gè)例子來(lái)看：